It is well-known that a natural catastrophe is an extreme event caused by adverse natural phenomena that can have devastating consequences when, in addition to the inherent effects of nature, human factors such as structural vulnerability, errors in planning/risk management, and mistakes/negligence in response or prevention come into play.

So:

Could lives have been saved in the prevention phase of the Valencia DANA?

The answer is likely yes.
A prevention plan from 2007, which had remained on hold for 15 years, would have likely reduced, if not eliminated, the loss of human lives. The project included a connection of the Rambla del Poyo to the new Turia riverbed, with an estimated cost at the time of between 150 and 200 million euros. According to experts, had it been in place, it would have managed to handle the rise in flow rates, as its capacity was designed for up to 5,000 cubic meters.

 

Could lives have been saved in the DANA emergency response? 

This is highly probable.
In addition to prior warnings from the AEMET issued since October 23rd, the catastrophic sequence of events and errors that occurred in Valencia on October 29th suggests this may have been possible.

Here’s what we know about what happened on that tragic Tuesday, now under investigation by the justice system. We’ll be breaking it down with our fixer team in Spain.

Dawn breaks over Valencia

7:26 AM. Forecasts for the DANA, known for days, confirm the worst-case scenario. The alert level for adverse meteorological phenomena (AMP) is raised to red. The Emergency Coordination Center establishes Situation 1 for rainfall in the Ribera Alta.

What Does Situation 1 Entail?
According to the Valencian Community’s Special Plan for Flood Risk, Situation 1 occurs when localized flooding has taken place, with response needs manageable using resources available in the affected areas.

Activity suspensions at schools, ports, universities, and municipal facilities due to the DANA risk follow. Both the Regional Government Office and the Valencian government issue warning messages to the public: avoid travel and take extreme caution on the roads.

At 9:00 AM, the Consell meeting begins, the first of four appointments scheduled for the President that morning, which will go ahead despite the unfolding DANA and a scenario of worsening extreme weather events.

The DANA hits the Ribera Alta

Around 9:30 AM, torrential rain falls in Ribera Alta.

Pilar Bernabé, government delegate in the Valencian Community, announces she will meet shortly with con @AEMET_CValencia, @DGTes, @guardiacivil, @policia, @UMEgob, @Adif_es, @Renfe and @CHJucar to assess the DANA situation.

All involved entities are called to play important roles, but three are critical for monitoring the severity of the event: AEMET, issuing meteorological warnings; the Júcar Hydrographic Confederation (CHJ), assessing real-time water flow in its jurisdiction; and Civil Protection, analyzing threats from AEMET and CHJ alerts and taking all necessary measures to minimize impact.

10:07 AM: AEMET extends the red alert level to the coast and the north of the Community. Many roads are closed. The first rescues in Ribera Alta begin.


The situation worsens by the minute, and special warnings are issued by the Valencian Emergency Coordination Center. Initially, they apply to municipalities near the Magro River and later to the Rambla del Poyo area. Underestimating the threat posed by these warnings was likely the first major error in DANA management.

An unfortunate intervention

At 1:00 PM, Carlos Mazón, President of the Valencian Community, addresses the media to provide an update on the DANA. During his remarks, he claims the situation will improve by 6:00 PM.

Hours later, this statement was deleted from his X profile, but it is clear that the Valencian government was, at that moment, anticipating positive developments regarding the DANA. Consequently, subsequent decisions would likely have been based on this optimistic outlook. Issuing this message to the public amid a red alert level is probably the second major error in managing the DANA.

Initial measures, but only for a few

The Generalitat sends its workers home. It’s 2:00 PM, and conditions are worsening. Over 200 liters per square meter have accumulated in some areas of the Community. Salomé Pradas, Valencia Councillorr of Justice and Interior, urges caution for residents in municipalities along the Magro River and the Rambla del Poyo. She just have learned about the disappearance of a truck driver in L’Alcudia, which, according to El País, is the reason for convening the meeting of the Integrated Operational Coordination Center (CECOPI). Not calling the meeting sooner was likely the third error in managing the DANA.

In parallel, Situation 2 of emergency is declared in the Plana de Utiel–Requena region, and shortly after, the Military Emergency Unit’s assistance is requested and logically granted.

It took three calls from the government delegate in Valencia, Pilar Bernabé, for Pradas to request UME support.

What is Situation 2 of emergency?
A situation in which flooding has overwhelmed local resources or, even without this occurrence, rainfall and hydrological data, combined with weather forecasts, suggest potential expansion or worsening of the event.

1:42 PM: The Júcar Hydrographic Confederation reports a drop in water flow rates. Follow-up emails at 3:04 PM and 4:13 PM confirm a downward trend in the Rambla del Poyo.

 

Carlos Mazón leaves for lunch, remaining out of sight until after 7:00 PM. Not being present from the start of the CECOPI meeting, despite his claim of being in constant communication, was likely the fourth error in managing the DANA.

The most critical hours of the DANA

The CECOPI meeting begins as scheduled, with virtual attendance from the Regional Government Office, Civil Guard, and National Police, and in-person attendance from the Generalitat, the Valencia Provincial Council, the Júcar Hydrographic Confederation, and the Military Emergency Unit.

Thirty-five minutes later (5:35 PM), the Emergency Coordination Center issues a new special hydrological alert, notifying all municipalities along the Magro and Júcar rivers of a high risk of widespread flooding, urging residents to avoid areas near the rivers. Concerns grow over a potential rupture of the Forata dam, now the priority of the meeting. The impact of such a rupture is hard to imagine.

At 6:43 PM, another crisis front emerges. The CHJ informs authorities via email of a surge in flow at the Rambla del Poyo, reaching 1,686 cubic meters per second. Not having provided updates on this flow increase since 4:13 PM was likely the fifth error in managing the DANA.

The situation is now clearly out of control, with little room for further action. The mud and debris-filled torrent moves through the Rambla del Poyo, spreading destruction. Minutes later, Paiporta publishes a video on social media showing the overflowing ravine: “Do not leave your homes.” It’s 6:49 PM. Later, the mayor calls the government delegate, warning that the Rambla del Poyo is overflowing and there may be fatalities.

7:15 PM: Audio obtained by Cadena Ser reveals that CECOPI was aware of the severity of the situation at this time and discussing whether ES – Alert messages would reach all cell phones despite power outages.

Mazón joins the CECOPI meeting

Between 7:00 and 7:30 PM (depending on the source), the President of the Valencian Community arrives at the CECOPI meeting in person. He had been at a “working” lunch where he claims he was “in communication throughout.” Mazón explained that it was at this point he was informed of the situation’s escalation in the Rambla del Poyo and the potential risk of a Forata dam rupture.

On an official trip to India, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez shares his concern on X at 7:43 PM for the missing persons and damage caused by the DANA. “All emergency services are deployed to handle the storm. Follow their instructions.”

As CECOPI members continue to deliberate a response, Salomé Pradas receives a call from Colombia. It’s the Secretary of State for the Environment, Hugo Morán, informing her of the critical state of the Forata Dam, which is the state’s responsibility. According to Mazón, this call triggered the ES-Alert system notification.

8:12 PM: An ES- Alert message from Civil Protection arrives: “Due to heavy rains and as a preventive measure, avoid any travel in the province of Valencia. Stay alert for further announcements via this channel and official sources.”

Many municipalities in l’Horta Sud had already been devastated.

 

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